In 2011, Jeopardy! aired a three-night match between a personable computer named Watson and the show's two most successful players. The winner: Watson. In the time it took each human contestant to respond to one trivia question, Watson was able to scan the content of one million books. It was also trained to understand the puns and twists of phrases unique to Jeopardy! clues.
Watson's remarkable accomplishments can be thought of as a single data point on an exponential curve that models growth in computing power. According to inventor, author, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, computer technology is progressing exponentially, doubling in power each year. What does this mean in terms of the accelerating pace of the graph of y=2^x that starts slowly and then rockets skyward to infinity? According to Kurzweil, by 2023, a supercomputer will surpass the brainpower of a human. As progress accelerates exponentially and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs, by 2045, computers will surpass the brainpower equivalent to that of all human brains combined. Here's where it gets exponentially weird: In that year (says Kurzweil), we will be able to scan our consciousness into computers and enter a virtual existence, or swap our bodies for immortal robots. Indefinite life extension will become a reality and people will die only if they choose to. WHAT?!?!
Watson's remarkable accomplishments can be thought of as a single data point on an exponential curve that models growth in computing power. According to inventor, author, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, computer technology is progressing exponentially, doubling in power each year. What does this mean in terms of the accelerating pace of the graph of y=2^x that starts slowly and then rockets skyward to infinity? According to Kurzweil, by 2023, a supercomputer will surpass the brainpower of a human. As progress accelerates exponentially and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs, by 2045, computers will surpass the brainpower equivalent to that of all human brains combined. Here's where it gets exponentially weird: In that year (says Kurzweil), we will be able to scan our consciousness into computers and enter a virtual existence, or swap our bodies for immortal robots. Indefinite life extension will become a reality and people will die only if they choose to. WHAT?!?!