Watson's remarkable accomplishments can be thought of as a single data point on an exponential curve that models growth in computing power. According to inventor, author, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, computer technology is progressing exponentially, doubling in power each year. What does this mean in terms of the accelerating pace of the graph of y=2^x that starts slowly and then rockets skyward to infinity? According to Kurzweil, by 2023, a supercomputer will surpass the brainpower of a human. As progress accelerates exponentially and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs, by 2045, computers will surpass the brainpower equivalent to that of all human brains combined. Here's where it gets exponentially weird: In that year (says Kurzweil), we will be able to scan our consciousness into computers and enter a virtual existence, or swap our bodies for immortal robots. Indefinite life extension will become a reality and people will die only if they choose to. WHAT?!?!
In 2011, Jeopardy! aired a three-night match between a personable computer named Watson and the show's two most successful players. The winner: Watson. In the time it took each human contestant to respond to one trivia question, Watson was able to scan the content of one million books. It was also trained to understand the puns and twists of phrases unique to Jeopardy! clues.
Watson's remarkable accomplishments can be thought of as a single data point on an exponential curve that models growth in computing power. According to inventor, author, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, computer technology is progressing exponentially, doubling in power each year. What does this mean in terms of the accelerating pace of the graph of y=2^x that starts slowly and then rockets skyward to infinity? According to Kurzweil, by 2023, a supercomputer will surpass the brainpower of a human. As progress accelerates exponentially and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs, by 2045, computers will surpass the brainpower equivalent to that of all human brains combined. Here's where it gets exponentially weird: In that year (says Kurzweil), we will be able to scan our consciousness into computers and enter a virtual existence, or swap our bodies for immortal robots. Indefinite life extension will become a reality and people will die only if they choose to. WHAT?!?!
5 Comments
Emma Bass
3/24/2016 06:08:27 pm
How do they define "power?" I think it is interesting that we can predict advancements mathematically like that, but how could they predict what the improvement will be? It doesn't really sound possible to me, but enteringa virtual existence sounds kind of cool anyway!
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Colin Williams
3/24/2016 07:02:29 pm
I think this is interesting how a robot could take the place of thinking for humans and surpass humans. I also think it is cool how you can represent knowledge growth exponentially and apply math to it to determine how much knowledge later there will be.
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Peter Mehlhadd
3/24/2016 07:47:53 pm
The thought of only existing in a consciousness through technology is very disturbing to me. I feel like by scanning ourselves into technology, we would be advancing our ability to process and etc., but we would lose what makes us human. Without our bodies and differences, there is nothing to distinguish us from a variety of different programs.
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Anna Breck
4/8/2016 06:24:44 am
This is really amazing. The thought of our consciousness being uploaded in the computers is really astonishing consciousness being uploaded into computers is really astonishing. However, the idea of this is pretty problematic, when a person dies the brain still deteriorates so if it's uploaded into a computer it would just be a copy of their consciousness and not really them. Saying that it could be a good closure for loved ones but it's not like we would be immortal we would still die.
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Holden Jones
4/8/2016 06:50:01 am
This is an interesting concept to think about. However, I personally do not think that this is true. Although there is definitely a possibility that computers will grow much more powerful than they are now, I do not think that it is possible for an invention to contain more information that its inventor. This computer "Watson" got all of his information from books, but those books were not written by computers. They were written by humans. I do believe that a computer can contain more information than an individual brain, but having information is different from having knowledge. Books are written from first hand accounts and unless robots start to create there own information, I don't think that they will become smarter than humans.
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